Adaptive enrichment designs involve rules for restricting enrollment to a subset of the population during the course of an ongoing trial. This can be used to target those who benefit from the experimental treatment. To leverage prognostic information in baseline variables and short-term outcomes, we use a semiparametric, locally efficient estimator, and investigate its strengths and limitations compared to standard estimators. Through simulation studies, we assess how sensitive the trial performance (Type I error, power, expected sample size, trial duration) is to different design characteristics. Our simulation distributions mimic features of data from the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative, and involve two subpopulations of interest based on a generic marker. We investigate the impact of the following design characteristics: the accrual rate, the delay time between enrollment and observation of the primary outcome, and the prognostic value of baseline variables and short-term outcomes. We apply information-based monitoring, and evaluate how accurately information can be estimated in an ongoing trial.
Qian, Tiachen; Colantuoni, Elizabeth; Fisher, Aaron; and Rosenblum, Michael, "SENSITIVITY OF TRIAL PERFORMANCE TO DELAY OUTCOMES, ACCRUAL RATES, AND PROGNOSTIC VARIABLES BASED ON A SIMULATED RANDOMIZED TRIAL WITH ADAPTIVE ENRICHMENT" (August 2016). Johns Hopkins University, Dept. of Biostatistics Working Papers. Working Paper 277.