Clincal trial designs often incorporate a sequential stopping rule to serve as a guide in the early termination of a study. When choosing a particular stopping rule, it is most common to examine frequentist operating characteristics such as type I error, statistical power, and precision of confi- dence intervals (Emerson, et al. ). Increasingly, however, clinical trials are designed and analyzed in the Bayesian paradigm. In this paper we describe how the Bayesian operating characteristics of a particular stopping rule might be evaluated and communicated to the scientific community. In particular, we consider a choice of probability models and a family of prior distributions that allows concise presentation of Bayesian properties for a specified sampling plan.
Statistical Methodology | Statistical Theory
Emerson, Scott S.; Kittelson, John M.; and Gillen, Daniel L., "Bayesian Evaluation of Group Sequential Clinical Trial Designs" (March 2005). UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series. Working Paper 242.