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The Department of Biostatistics is one of 5 departments in the School of Public Health and Community Medicine at the University of Washington. Its mission is to serve as a source of expertise and a focus for training and research in the quantitative aspects of public health and medicine, and to promote the use of rigorous quantitative methods in the biomedical and public health sciences.

Our graduate program is regarded as one of the best Biostatistics programs in the world, with over 30 years of teaching and research experience on the UW campus. Faculty interests range over a wide variety of statistical topics, including survival analysis, clinical trials, statistical genetics and correlated data.

The UW Biostatistics Working Paper series includes articles on statistical methods and applications developed by members of the department. In general, articles dated 2000 and later are downloadable from this site.

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Papers from 2014

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Testing Gene-Environment Interactions in the Presence of Measurement Error, Chongzhi Di, Li Hsu, Charles Kooperberg, Alex Reiner, and Ross Prentice

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Change Point Testing in Logistic Regression Models with Interaction Term, Youyi Fong, Chongzhi Di, and Sallie Permar

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Efficiently Identifying Failures using Quantitative Tests, Matrix-Pooling and the EM-Algorithm, Brett Hanscom, Susanne May, and Jim Hughes

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Personalized Evaluation of Biomarker Value: A Cost-benefit Perspective, Ying Huang and Eric Laber

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A Joint Model for Multistate Disease Processes and Random Informative Observation Times, with Applications to Electronic Medical Records Data, Jane M. Lange, Rebecca A. Hubbard, Lurdes Y. T. Inoue, and Vladimir Minin

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Nonparametric Identifiability of Finite Mixture Models with Covariates for Estimating Error Rate without a Gold Standard, Zheyu Wang and Xiao-Hua Zhou

Papers from 2013

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Methods for Dealing with Death and Missing Data, and for Standardizing Different Health Variables in Longitudinal Datasets: The Cardiovascular Health Study, Paula Diehr

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Characterizing Expected Benefits of Biomarkers in Treatment Selection, Ying Huang, Eric Laber, and Holly Janes

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Statistical Methods for Evaluating and Comparing Biomarkers for Patient Treatment Selection, Holly Janes, Marshall D. Brown, Margaret Pepe, and Ying Huang

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Net Reclassification Indices for Evaluating Risk Prediction Instruments: A Critical Review, Kathleen F. Kerr, Zheyu Wang, Holly Janes, Robyn McClelland, Bruce M. Psaty, and Margaret S. Pepe

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Prediction of fine particulate matter chemical components for the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis cohort: A comparison of two modeling approaches, Sun-Young Kim, Lianne Sheppard, Silas Bergen, Adam A. Szpiro, Paul D. Sampson, Joel Kaufman, and Sverre Vedal

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Issues Related to Combining Multiple Speciated PM2.5 Data Sources in Spatio-Temporal Exposure Models for Epidemiology: The NPACT Case Study, Sun-Young Kim, Lianne Sheppard, Timothy V. Larson, Joel Kaufman, and Sverre Vedal

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Multi-state Models for Natural History of Disease, Amy Laird, Rebecca A. Hubbard, and Lurdes Y. T. Inoue

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An Evaluation of Inferential Procedures for Adaptive Clinical Trial Designs with Pre-specified Rules for Modifying the Sample Size, Greg P. Levin, Sarah C. Emerson, and Scott S. Emerson

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The Net Reclassification Index (NRI): a Misleading Measure of Prediction Improvement with Miscalibrated or Overfit Models, Margaret Pepe, Jin Fang, Ziding Feng, Thomas Gerds, and Jorgen Hilden

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Net Reclassification Index: a Misleading Measure of Prediction Improvement, Margaret Sullivan Pepe, Holly Janes, Kathleen F. Kerr, and Bruce M. Psaty

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Hypothesis Testing for an Extended Cox Model with Time-Varying Coefficients, Takumi Saegusa, Chongzhi Di, and Ying Qing Chen

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Asymptotic and Finite Sample Behavior of Net Reclassification Indices, Zheyu Wang

Papers from 2012

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A National Model Built with Partial Least Squares and Universal Kriging and Bootstrap-based Measurement Error Correction Techniques: An Application to the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, Silas Bergen, Lianne Sheppard, Paul D. Sampson, Sun-Young Kim, Mark Richards, Sverre Vedal, Joel Kaufman, and Adam A. Szpiro

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Decline in Health for Older Adults: 5-Year Change in 13 Key Measures of Standardized Health, Paula H. Diehr, Stephen M. Thielke, Anne B. Newman, Calvin H. Hirsch, and Russell Tracy

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Borrowing Information Across Populations in Estimating Positive and Negative Predictive Values, Ying Huang, Youyi Fong, John Wei, and Ziding Feng

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Fitting and Interpreting Continuous-Time Latent Markov Models for Panel Data, Jane M. Lange and Vladimir N. Minin

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Methods for Evaluating Prediction Performance of Biomarkers and Tests, Margaret Pepe and Holly Janes

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Testing for improvement in prediction model performance, Margaret S. Pepe PhD, Kathleen F. Kerr, Gary M. Longton, and Zheyu Wang

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A Regionalized National Universal Kriging Model Using Partial Least Squares Regression for Estimating Annual PM2.5 Concentrations in Epidemiology, Paul D. Sampson, Mark Richards, Adam A. Szpiro, Silas Bergen, Lianne Sheppard, Timothy V. Larson, and Joel Kaufman

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Transitions Among Health States Using 12 Measures of Successful Aging: Results from the Cardiovascular Health Study, Stephen Thielke and Paula Diehr

Papers from 2011

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When Does Combining Markers Improve Classification Performance and What Are Implications for Practice?, Aasthaa Bansal and Margaret Sullivan Pepe

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Doubly Robust Estimates for Binary Longitudinal Data Analysis with Missing Response and Missing Covariates, Baojiang Chen and Xiao-Hua Zhou

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The Importance of Statistical Theory in Outlier Detection, Sarah C. Emerson and Scott S. Emerson

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Some Observations on the Wilcoxon Rank Sum Test, Scott S. Emerson

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Adaptive Clinical Trial Designs with Pre-specified Rules for Modifying the Sample Size: Understanding Efficient Types of Adaptation, Gregory P. Levin, Sarah C. Emerson, and Scott S. Emerson

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A Flexible Spatio-Temporal Model for Air Pollution: Allowing for Spatio-Temporal Covariates, Johan Lindstrom, Adam A. Szpiro, Paul D. Sampson, Lianne Sheppard, Assaf Oron, Mark Richards, and Tim Larson

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Semiparametric Estimation of the Covariate-Specific ROC Curve in Presence of Ignorable Verification Bias, Danping Liu and Xiao-Hua Zhou

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Evaluating Markers for Treatment Selection Based on Survival Time, Xiao Song and Xiao-Hua Zhou

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Non-Homogeneous Markov Process Models with Incomplete Observations: Application to a Dementia Disease Study, Xiao-Hua Zhou and Baojiang Chen

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BATE Curve in Assessment of Clinical Utility of Predictive Biomarkers, Xiao-Hua Zhou and Yunbei Ma

Papers from 2010

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Panel Count Data Regression with Informative Observation Times, Petra Buzkova

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Modification and Improvement of Empirical Liklihood for Missing Response Problem, Gary Chan

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Modification and Improvement of Empirical Likelihood for Missing Response Problem, Kwun Chuen Gary Chan

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Oracle and Multiple Robustness Properties of Survey Calibration Estimator in Missing Response Problem, Kwun Chuen Gary Chan

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On Two-Stage Hypothesis Testing Procedures Via Asymptotically Independent Statistics, James Dai, Charles Kooperberg, Michael L. LeBlanc, and Ross Prentice

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On two-stage hypothesis testing procedures via asymptotically independent statistics, James Y. Dai, Charles Kooperberg, Michael LeBlanc, and Ross L. Prentice

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Robustness of approaches to ROC curve modeling under misspecification of the underlying probability model, Sean Devlin, Elizabeth Thomas, and Scott S. Emerson

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Using the Stages of Change Model to Choose an Optimal Health Marketing Target, Paula Diehr, Peggy A. Hannon, Barbara Pizacani, Mark Forehand, Jeffrey Harris, Hendrika Meischke, Susan J. Curry, Diane P. Martin, and Marcia R. Weaver

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Multi-state Life Tables, Equilibrium Prevalence, and Baseline Selection Bias, Paula Diehr and David Yanez

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Exploring the Benefits of Adaptive Sequential Designs in Time-to-Event Endpoint Settings, Sarah C. Emerson, Kyle Rudser, and Scott S. Emerson

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Bio-Creep in Non-Inferiority Clinical Trials, Siobhan P. Everson-Stewart and Scott S. Emerson

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Asymptotic Properties of the Sequential Empirical ROC and PPV Curves, Joseph S. Koopmeiners and Ziding Feng

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Optimizing Vaccine Allocation at Different Points in Time During an Epidemic, Laura Matrajt and Ira M. Longini Jr.

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Nonparametric and Semiparametric Analysis of Current Status Data Subject to Outcome Misclassification, Victor G. Sal y Rosas and James P. Hughes

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Estimates of Information Growth in Longitudinal Clinical Trials, Abigail Shoben, Kyle Rudser, and Scott S. Emerson

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Model-Robust Regression and a Bayesian `Sandwich' Estimator, Adam A. Szpiro, Kenneth M. Rice, and Thomas Lumley

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Efficient Measurement Error Correction with Spatially Misaligned Data, Adam A. Szpiro, Lianne Sheppard, and Thomas Lumley

Papers from 2009

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Measures to Summarize and Compare the Predictive Capacity of Markers, Wen Gu and Margaret Pepe

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Is Survival the Only or Even the Right Outcome for Evaluating Treatments for Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest? A Proposed Test Based on Both an Intermediate and Ultimate Outcome., Al Hallstrom

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Interval Estimation for the Difference in Paired Areas under the ROC Curves in the Absence of a Gold Standard Test, Hsin-Neng Hsieh, Hsiu-Yuan Su, and Xiao-Hua Zhou

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Nonparametric and Semiparametric Estimation of the Three Way Receiver Operating Characteristic Surface, Jialiang Li and Xiao-Hua Zhou

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A Semi-Parametric Two-Part Mixed-Effects Heteroscedastic Transformation Model for Correlated Right-Skewed Semi-Continuous Data, Huazhen Lin and Xiao-Hua Zhou

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Semiparametric Two-Part Models with Proportionality Constraints: Analysis of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA), Anna Liu, Richard Kronmal, Xiao-Hua Zhou, and Shuangge Ma

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Robustness of Semiparametric Efficiency in Nearly-Correct Models for Two-Phase Samples, Thomas Lumley

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Pooled Nucleic Acid Testing to Identify Antiretroviral Treatment Failure during HIV Infection, Susanne May, Anthony Gamst, Richard Haubrich, Constance Benson, and Davey Smith

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Pragmatic Estimation of a Spatio-Temporal Air Quality Model With Irregular Monitoring Data, Paul D. Sampson, Adam A. Szpiro, Lianne Sheppard, Johan Lindström, and Joel D. Kaufman

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Evaluating Markers for Treatment Selection Based on Survival Time, Xiao Song and Xiao-Hua Zhou

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Multiple Imputation Methods for Treatment Noncompliance and Nonresponse in Randomized Clinical Trials, Leslie Taylor and Xiao-Hua (Andrew) Zhou

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Relaxing Latent Ignorability in the ITT Analysis of Randomized Studies with Missing Data and Noncompliance, L Taylor and Xiao-Hua Zhou

Papers from 2008

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Multiple imputation of timing of mother-to-child transmission of HIV, Elizabeth Brown and Ying Qing Chen

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Using Longitudinal Data to Estimate the Effect of Starting to Exercise on the Health of Sedentary Older Adults, Paula Diehr and Calvin Hirsch

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Semiparametric and nonparametric methods for evaluating risk prediction markers in case-control studies, Ying Huang and Margaret Pepe

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Semiparametric methods for evaluating the covariate-specific predictiveness of continuous markers in matched case-control studies, Ying Huang and Margaret S. Pepe

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Accommodating Covariates in ROC Analysis, Holly Janes, Gary M. Longton, and Margaret Pepe

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Influence of prediction approaches for spatially-dependent air pollution exposure on health effect estimation, Sun-Young Kim, Lianne Sheppard, and Ho Kim

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Estimation and Comparison of Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves, Margaret Pepe, Gary M. Longton, and Holly Janes

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Trading Bias for Precision: Decision Theory for Intervals and Sets, Kenneth M. Rice, Thomas Lumley, and Adam A. Szpiro

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Estimation for Arbitrary Functionals of Survival, Kyle Rudser, Michael L. LeBlanc, and Scott S. Emerson

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Predicting Intra-Urban Variation in Air Pollution Concentrations with Complex Spatio-Temporal Interactions, Adam A. Szpiro, Paul D. Sampson, Lianne Sheppard, Thomas Lumley, Sara D. Adar, and Joel Kaufman

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Accounting for Errors from Predicting Exposures in Environmental Epidemiology and Environmental Statistics, Adam A. Szpiro, Lianne Sheppard, and Thomas Lumley

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Semiparametric Inferential Procedures for Comparing Multivariate ROC Curves with Interaction Terms, Liansheng Tang and Xiao-Hua Zhou

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Synthesis Analysis of Regression Models with a Continuous Outcome, Andrew Zhou, Nan Hu, Guizhou Hu, and Martin Root

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Semi-Parametric Maximum Likelihood Estimates for ROC Curves of Continuous-Scale Tests, Xiao-Hua Zhou and Huazhen Lin

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Nonparametric Heteroscedastic Transformation Regression Models for Skewed Data with an Application to Health Care Costs, Xiao-Hua Zhou, Huazhen Lin, and Eric Johnson

Papers from 2007

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Identifiability and Estimation of Causal Effects in Randomized Trials with Noncompliance and Completely Non-ignorable Missing-Data, Hua Chen, Zhi Geng, and Xiao-Hua Zhou

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ROC Surfaces in the Presence of Verification Bias, Yueh-Yun Chi and Xiao-Hua (Andrew) Zhou

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Power Boosting in Genome-Wide Studies Via Methods for Multivariate Outcomes, Mary J. Emond

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A Censored Multinomial Regression Model for Perinatal Mother to Child Transmission of HIV, Charlotte C. Gard and Elizabeth R. Brown

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Evaluating a Group Sequential Design in the Setting of Nonproportional Hazards, Daniel L. Gillen and Scott S. Emerson

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A Parametric ROC Model Based Approach for Evaluating the Predictiveness of Continuous Markers in Case-control Studies, Ying Huang and Margaret Pepe

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Biomarker Evaluation Using the Controls as a Reference Population, Ying Huang and Margaret Pepe

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Adjusting for Covariates in Studies of Diagnostic, Screening, or Prognostic Markers: An Old Concept in a New Setting, Holly Janes and Margaret Pepe

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What Is the Best Reference RNA? And Other Questions Regarding the Design and Analysis of Two-Color Microarray Experiments, Kathleen F. Kerr, Kyle A. Serikawa, Caimiao Wei, Mette A. Peters, and Roger E. Bumgarner

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Longitudinal Data with Follow-up Truncated by Death: Finding a Match Between Analysis Method and Research Aims, Brenda Kurland, Laura Lee Johnson, and Paula Diehr

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Estimating Sensitivity and Specificity from a Phase 2 Biomarker Study that Allows for Early Termination, Margaret S. Pepe PhD

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Evaluating the ROC Performance of Markers for Future Events, Margaret Pepe, Yingye Zheng, and Yuying Jin

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Gamma Generalized Linear Models for Pharmacokinetic Data, Ruth Salway and Jon Wakefield

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Model-Robust Bayesian Regression and the Sandwich Estimator, Adam A. Szpiro, Kenneth M. Rice, and Thomas Lumley

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Nonparametric and Semiparametric Group Sequential Methods for Comparing Accuracy of Diagnostic Tests, Liansheng Tang, Scott S. Emerson, and Xiao-Hua Zhou

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Ecologic Studies Revisited, Jon Wakefield

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Reporting and Interpretation in Genome-Wide Association Studies, Jon Wakefield

Papers from 2006

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Generalized confidence intervals for the ratio or difference of two means for lognormal populations with zeros, Yea-Hung Chen and Xiao-Hua Zhou

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Large Cluster Asymptotics for GEE: Working Correlation Models, Hyoju Chung and Thomas Lumley

Functional ANOVA Normalization of Two-Channel Microarrays, Alan Dabney and John D. Storey